A new aviation safety report from Embry-Riddle reveals why fear of flying often outweighs the data, especially in the age of social media.
If recent aviation headlines have made you more anxious about flying, you’re not alone.
In this day and age, aviation accidents don’t stay local for long. Mechanical issues, engine failures, failed takeoffs, runway go-arounds or close calls can all be edited, posted, re-shared and context removed before the plane taxis back to the gate. Social media has made the average traveler more aware than ever of every little aviation mishap.
Raising awareness can be helpful, but it can also make normal flying procedures seem scary, especially to those who don’t quite understand the rules and science behind commercial aviation.
For example, a go-around is a safe and routine maneuver. Pilots practice it, air traffic controllers expect it, and airlines plan for it. But if anyone saw a shaky cell phone video with dramatic subtitles and music, it would look like a disaster. Once the video appears on social media, the details are often lost.
This is the problem with aviation in the age of algorithms. Drama creates clicks. Fear spreads faster than circumstances. Because aviation accidents and incidents are so visible, it can give the impression that flying has suddenly become more dangerous.
one new report Research from the Boeing Aerospace Safety Center at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University provides a much-needed reality check.
The report is titled Comparative Risk Indicators for U.S. Commercial Aviationlooks at U.S. commercial aviation safety under Part 121 operations and compares it to other forms of transportation, recreational activities, household risks, and common occupations. The main conclusion is clear: By any measure, U.S. commercial aviation remains one of the safest activities in modern life.
“Air travel remains the safest mode of transportation when all metrics are considered,” said Robert L. Sumwalt, executive director of the Boeing Center for Aerospace Safety and former chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board.
More than one way to look at risk
One of the most important points in the report is that risk cannot be summed up in just one number.
People who are nervous about flying may not consider passenger miles. Instead, they might think, “What’s the likelihood that something will happen on my flight?” Regulators or safety experts might focus on risks per hour, per mile, per trip, or over a lifetime. All of these are valid, but each requires a different approach to measuring risk.
That’s why the Embry-Riddle report uses a variety of risk metrics, including risk per passenger mile, risk per trip or event, risk per hour of exposure, annual risk and lifetime odds of death.
Dr. Mikhail Berezovsky, associate professor and director of undergraduate studies at Embry-Riddle, moderated the presentation. The goal, he said, is to help people understand aviation safety in a clearer, more logical way.
“We want to provide people with correct, comprehensive and broad information so that they can rationally assess risks,” Berezovsky said. “By studying multiple complementary measures, we can conclude that safety performance in the aviation industry is not the result of one assessment method. Rather, it is a consistent result across distance, time and event-based perspectives.”
Aviation safety performance is not the result of a single assessment method. Rather, it is a consistent result across distance, time, and event-based perspectives.
Comparative Risk Indicators for U.S. Commercial Aviation
This is important because aviation accidents are very rare…but they attract a lot of attention. The report notes that people’s opinions are often shaped by the emotional impact of major events rather than the actual risks. In other words, flying can feel dangerous because rare accidents are so memorable.
But the data shows a different story.
Commercial aviation stands out
The report, using multiple years of data, found that U.S. commercial aviation produced approximately one fatality for every 90.9 billion passenger miles during the analysis period. This puts it well ahead of other modes of transportation in terms of distance traveled.
That’s a huge number, and it helps explain why aviation remains such a strong outlier when it comes to transportation safety. By comparison, traveling on an express bus carries about 9 times the risk of death per passenger mile. Cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, minivans and vans carry more than 600 times the risk of flying the same distance. Motorcycle travel is even more risky, with the risk per passenger mile being more than 22,000 times higher.
This doesn’t mean air travel is risk-free. No mode of transportation can guarantee this. But it does show how advanced, regulatory and data-driven the U.S. aviation system is today.
The report also examines the risks of single-airline boarding, which may be a more intuitive view of flying for many passengers. On this basis, commercial aviation once again performed well. The report estimates that one person died on more than 97 million airline boardings.
When you compare flying to other individual activities, the difference is obvious. A day of skiing or snowboarding is approximately 73 times more risky than taking a commercial flight. Scuba diving has about 180 times the risk, running a marathon has about 200 times the risk, and skydiving has about 400 times the risk.
If you’re worried about your flight as you drive to the airport, these numbers are a good reminder: Flights are often the safest part of your trip, even though it can often feel the scariest.
Everyday risks tend to be much higher
The report also compares aviation risks to everyday hazards, even those that don’t typically cause public concern.
Each year, the chance of death in a U.S. commercial aviation accident is described as “remote.” The report compares this risk to risks of falls, car accidents, drowning, heat, home injuries and more.
For example, the annual risk of dying in a car accident is more than 5,800 times higher than in a U.S. commercial aviation accident. The risk of falls is more than 5,600 times higher and the risk of preventable death at home is more than 14,000 times higher.
Even seemingly extremely rare risks, such as being struck by lightning or being bitten by a dog, are higher each year than the risk of dying in a commercial aviation accident.
This is not to downplay aviation accidents. Every accident is serious and every loss is important. But reports suggest the emotional impact of tragedy can cause us to misjudge actual risks.
“This report helps people put aviation risks into the broader context of their daily activities and careers,” Berezovsky said. “It’s natural to feel fear or worry after an accident, but both personal and policy-related decisions should be based on solid data, not just fear based on a single incident.”
Rare events require careful weighing
One reason aviation safety is so difficult to discuss publicly is that fatal commercial aviation accidents are now extremely rare in the United States.
Obviously, this is good news. But statistically, this also presents challenges. For many years, there may be no fatalities at all. In another year, an accident could skew perceptions of the trend. A zero-death year does not mean that the potential risk is actually zero. A rare fatal accident during the year does not necessarily mean that the entire system is suddenly unsafe.
To address this issue, the Embry-Riddle report uses multi-year aggregate data. This approach helps mitigate the instability inherent in rare events and provides a clearer understanding of long-term safety performance.
This is especially important in the current media environment. A scary video can make people feel like a pattern exists, even if the underlying data suggests otherwise. The full report serves as a reminder that aviation safety should be judged by rigorous analysis, not by whatever clips circulated online that day.
That doesn’t mean viral videos become pointless. Sometimes they capture serious incidents. Sometimes they ask valid questions. Sometimes they draw closer attention. But they are not a replacement for data.
Safe doesn’t mean done
One of the most important things about the report is its cautious approach.
This report is not intended to celebrate or imply that the work is done. In fact, the experts behind it say otherwise.
Sumwalt noted that today’s aviation safety results from decades of global standards, careful oversight, better technology, training, rules and lessons learned from past accidents. These improvements take time and often come from difficult experiences.
These improvements need to be protected.
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“Low risk doesn’t mean no risk,” Sumwalt said. “The aviation community must continue to learn from every accident, incident and near miss. This analysis gives us a clearer baseline against which to measure progress.”
That’s the right way to look at a report like this. The data should reassure passengers but should not make the industry complacent. The aviation industry has a good safety record because people ask tough questions, investigate problems, improve systems, and never settle for less than “safe enough.”
Embry-Riddle University President P. Barry Butler said the university’s role is to help drive conversation in the public sphere.
“Embry-Riddle has been a leader in aviation and aerospace safety for more than a century,” Butler said. “By combining academic analysis and industry partnerships with public outreach, we work to advance the national risk conversation and provide regulators, airlines and the travel public with the data and tools they need to continuously improve safety.”
For travelers, the takeaway is simple but important. The fear of flying is understandable. Aviation accidents are rare, but when they occur they can have a big impact. In the age of social media, even routine or safely handled incidents can become dramatic.
But the actual numbers tell a much calmer story.
Measured by miles, trips, hours, years and lifetimes, U.S. commercial aviation remains remarkably safe. This is not without risk. Nothing is.
But compared to the risks people face every day, flying is as safe as any form of travel humans have ever had.
This is true.